How do you determine the Weather?

[xoloxolo]

Hi.

I'm sorry if this sounds dumb, but I'm very anxious to find out...

I was wondering how to read the "Storms / Convective Outlook", and the "Weather Map" to forecast a flight? I can sort of understand the "Storms / Convective Outlook": The rule is don't fly through or near the red (SIGMETS)!

I was confused about the weather maps. It seems that there is not a day (like today) when you can avoid a front or a gray pressure line (if you plan to fly across the US). What areas will constitute as a turbulent area on this map for today? Is it where the Highs and Lows meet (like around Nebraska + Kansas, and New York)?

I know I left out altitude as a factor, because it's set in my mind that cruising altitude is "above the weather", and I should only be concerned of the departure and arrival points when it comes to weather, but am I wrong?

Any comments will be appreciated.

Thanks!

[xoloxolo]

Hi again,

Based on my question, I'm tracking a flight from ORD to OKC. There is a line where a High and Low meets on the weather map over the north-east region of Oklahoma. Unless the pilot flies around this line, is this flight supposed to be pretty bad? There are (1) no turbulence advisories, (2) no CAT, and (3) a storm over Iowa and Missouri

Flight (enroute):http://flightaware.com/live/flight/LOF7915

Weather Map: http://www.turbulenceforecast.com/weather.php

Storm / Convective Outlook: http://www.turbulenceforecast.com/convective_storms.php

Thanks.

[xoloxolo]

I included jpegs of most of the maps at the time of this post.

[tb_neg]

The Highs (H) and Lows (L) are more of weather makers than turbulence makers, if that makes sense. A high pressure system usually means cool clear weather, while low can indicate rain and such.

For self forecasts, I'd just limit yourself to the turbulence advisory areas, pilot reports of turbulence, and perhaps the radar. The rest is just extra information that has significantly less meaning. They are provided for pilots and weather people, some of which has been requested.

In general, weather really only effects take off and landing. At cruise you usually fly around stuff, or are above it. In cases of really large storms, they can mean delays, or bits of isolated turbulence if you brush near a storm.

Does that make sense?

[tb_neg]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pressure_system

[xoloxolo]

Hi tb_neg,

Thanks for your quick reply.

Yes, I clearly understand now. Though I never get to actually get the results, I predicted flights out of curiosity, and when doing that I always used all your maps, and when I combine all of them, it seems that the whole US continent seemed unsafe!

As I did in the past, I will definitely ask you for a true forecast when I fly.

Thanks for your detailed explanation. It got rid of some unnecessary anxiety!

[xoloxolo]

Thanks for the link as well ! I'll take a real good look at it.

[tb_neg]

You are too kind. I just look at the same maps as you and give my best guess. I wouldn't call it a true forecast! :redface:



As I did in the past, I will definitely ask you for a true forecast when I fly.