Air France

[pinworm]

It would seem that this accident was probably a culmination of events intstead of a single one. Turbulence is very very very unlikely to have brought down a big airliner at cruise.

Lightening is almost never an issue either. For one thing the aircraft is not grounded, and for another it's designed to channel the charge through the skin on the outside.

I suspect that there was a malfunction of some sort, probably electrical. Electrical fault info was broadcast to Air France headquarters by an automated system onboard. Perhaps a fire like on SwissAir 111. While this could have been serious ENOUGH, the problem was exacerbated by difficult flying conditions..severe turbulence, icing, water or ice ingestion and a bad problem was made worse.

It's the not knowing which is upsetting.

[mjt]

i really need to know how in the hell the pilot got into that mess? other flights were ahead of him and obviously took a slightly different route. were they sleeping?
don't pilots know what is ahead of them?? please help me to continue to believe that pilots at least know what kind of weather they're in for and that they can change routes!
this air disaster has been a total paradigm shift for me.
thanks
mjt in rome who always flies on a boeing

[sgambaccini]

i can only say that for what I read, from other pilots, you should always stay away from these kind of thunderstorms. That route is flown always at night, pilots have to keep monitoring ahead, often flashing their lights on and off or checking the radar. What baffles me is why don't they have more accurate reports of trouble areas before they take off? I'm assuming that with all the sophisticated satellite views and live weather action available, one could say "stay away from that area" ? it's weird. Anyway, I can only say that whenever I fly Air France to Europe, at night, we hit turbulence, captain comes on PA ("fasten your seat belt") and flashes headlights to look ahead. When I fly on Delta instead, they tell you what to expect, they tell you what other planes are reporting ahead, and if possible even how long the turbulence will last. I always thought that was a big difference. And yes, flying a Boeing too.

[tb_neg]

I'm no expert, but it's hard to believe it was just turbulence, or just one thing. These kind of things require multiple things to go wrong; we won't be sure until more information is released. That being said, Airbus craft have been involved in some weird incidents that don't sit well with me.

Like this:
http://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/...200806143.aspx
and
http://www.planeandpilotmag.com/pilo...&print=1&page=

However, I do believe that the advanced systems in Airbus craft may also be responsible for some miracle saves, such as the famous Hudson River landing, as the software is very advanced and can be of great help to the pilot.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US_Airways_1549

Overall though, flying is very very very safe. Lack of exercise kills a LOT more people than flying does.

And as an aside, the site ( www.turbulenceforecast.com ) did 6x the usual traffic on Monday, and about 4x the usual traffic Tuesday, both setting new site records.

[tb_neg]

Some interesting links:
http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/af447/
http://744.hoppie.nl/forum.cgi/noframes/read/16594
http://www.reuters.com/article/lates.../idUSL21026278

[skadanks]

A question many are wondering is why on earth isn't there GPS tracking of planes rather than outdated WWII radar technology. Afterall, we can walk right down the electronics store and buy a GPS unit for the car yet they can't put them in planes flying far beyond radar coverage?

This article discussing the matter:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...o7yWgD98JN7UG1

[tek]

18 wheeler trucks are tracked using sat/gps systems and have been for years.

Our air traffic system is antiquated, obsolete, expensive to maintain, and managed by a dysfunctional government agency. I know. I worked in the FAA as an air traffic controller for 18 years until Oct. 2005.

In the case of AF447 my theory is the crew flew the aircraft into a thunderstorm cell unknowingly because of the inadequacy of airborne weather radar.

Better tracking systems would help search and rescue efforts but few pilots have flown into cells and lived to tell about it. No aircraft can survive structurally vertical wind shears in excess of 200 kts. embedded with hail that may be 2 inches or more in diameter. Lightning would blind the crew and the engines would probably flameout.

My wife flew in a B737-800 from DCA to SEA yesterday. They were held up at the gate because of weather and I was talking to her about the thunderstorm activity approaching DCA wondering what info the pilots had in the cockpit and generally getting somewhat anxious. She got home late and said it was a smooth flight.

[mareducate]

Would someone please tell me why they flew into an area where embedded thunderstorms were located? Didn't the radar tell them that? Or is this standard procedure when traveling across the equator and we can just expect severe turbulence in spring on that route?

[LLL]

They can't fly around every storm. The pilots want to go home to their families like everyone else. They log too much cockpit time as it is between delays at major airports, and long trips.

[tek]

Pilots do not fly into thunderstorms knowingly. They are to be given a wide berth-30 miles distant is the figure if memory serves. Self-survival would keep a pilot and his crew out of a thunderstorm. There are several factors at work on this particular flight. First, overland flights have the advantage of a network of land based weather radar systems. Here in the US the NWS updated their radar system through the 90's. It is called Nexrad and has helped tremendously with real time data to identify severe weather. That data can be relayed to pilots in the cockpit used in conjunction with on-board weather radar. That used to be my job. Over the ocean we have no radar data. The pilot has on-board radar only and it is not as effective. The radar waves are easily attenuated or weakened by ice crystals and the radar will not be able to penetrate to see what is beyond. (Remember you are traveling 8 miles per minute) The earth is covered mostly with water. 2/3 's to 3/4's of the planet is ocean as you know. The flight was conducted in the tropics where the atmosphere is thick, moist and unstable. Thunderstorms can easily top 50,000 ft in the tropical parts of the world (including the south US in the summertime). There are many types of thunderstorms. They can occur as individual or isolated cells easily seen and avoided. They can occur in lines as is common in and along cold fronts easily topped in the higher lattitudes but normally routed around or between gaps in individual cells or gaps in the line if possible. They can become super cells that grow so large they feed themselves through the energy created by the mass. All these types can also occur embedded in weather or clouds either produced by the storms themselves or by other weather phenom. such as low pressure circulations. Pilots avoid the cell of the storm which is the area of massive updrafts and downdrafts creating vertical shears. Common to have hail and supercooled water droplets suspended or rising or falling, sometimes driven downward at great velocity. Usually appears on the radar enhanced by color and is the area with the most reflectivity from the radar waves that are bounced off them. It is common to fly in weather and at night. Thousand of flights are conducted safely every day over every part of the globe. Planes are built to thrive in extreme conditions. Temperatures aloft are minus 45 degrees F. and at the surface may be near 100 plus. They operate at the upper limit of our atmosphere and at the bottom of it. We have all flown in turbulence, clouds, icing and near thunderstorms while sipping cocktails. Pilots are trained professionals and I would not hesitate for a moment to go aboard a modern airliner and fly anywhere on the planet. Sometimes things go wrong. It is tragic and makes the news. I could go on and on and I realize that eighteens years of weather observation and pilot weather briefing has given me a store of knowledge that is somewhat unique. Maybe ignorance is bliss. I like to know what is happening around me.