11/04/2015 00:10 am SFO-HKG Cathay Pacific CX 893

tb_neg

Administrator
Staff member
Yeah, it doesn't look terrific. A lot of it is going to be routing dependent, they haven't posted the flight path yet, but I suspect it'll be more southerly. Some times they fly up by Alaska's tail, sometimes south of that. I suspect you'll fly more south to avoid the jets blowing the wrong way, so perhaps the first half may not be that bad, just some light as you cross that one jet (again, route dependent). Looks like they route all of those flights over Japan, and associated with the jet you usually run into some light turbulence. There are some zones of moderate indicated. The whole area is just a hotbed of activity, especially this time of year. Your saving grace is since you're going westbound, they'll try to avoid those jets as best they can. Going eastbound, you'd likely ride them back over.

So in summary, occasional to continuous light to moderate possible for much of the flight. In reality I suspect you'll have intermittent periods of smooth with some times of light-moderate, and they'll probably announce them ahead of time because other planes in the area will report.

Wish I had a better prognosis! As you may be aware I forecast worst case scenario here. So fingers crossed!
 

araksonofthunder

Subscriber Elite
You are right. Looks like they have posted and it is more southerly than normal for this route (https://flightaware.com/live/flight/CPA893/history/20151104/0810Z/KSFO/VHHH). Given this route, any changes in what I can expect?
Also saw something interesting. SQ1 which takes off literally 5 min prior to the same destination is taking a totally different route (https://flightaware.com/live/flight/SIA1/history/20151104/0805Z/KSFO/VHHH). Wonder who determines this. That's too bad, it could've served as our 'lookout' :)
 

tb_neg

Administrator
Staff member
Curious as to how the routes are so different. I suspect it might be better with this southerly routing. Perhaps the routes are different because of fuel requirements. One may have more cargo to carry and have different needs in regards to avoiding the jets, etc. It's a shame you didn't fly one day later, the maps for your flight time have already been superseded by tomorrow's maps, and the routes look much better. I'm holding out for a somewhat decent flight, at least it's trending towards being better, rather than worse.
 

tb_neg

Administrator
Staff member
Better today. First half looks good, some bumps out of SFO, occasional light a little southwest of Alaska, bumpy if you fly alongside the jet blowing east on the second half, (light - moderate), occasional light last 90 minutes or so. I meant to send this out a little earlier, sorry for the close call, hopefully you see this before you take off.
 

araksonofthunder

Subscriber Elite
Saw it before takeoff. Was about as you said. Not too bad. turb.jpg
I've attached an image showing where some light-moderate actually occurred. The first was the 'flight attendants be seated' type. The rest were light 'only seatbelt on' type. Overall decent. What was really helpful for me was the live camera showing the outside of the plane which was on throughout the turbulence. The plane seemed to be hardly moving at all.
 
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