8/20/2016 12:35 UTC SAO BSB JJ3704 Tam Airlines

Popinigis

Lifetime Elite
Hey, tb_neg! Actually, this is not a forecast request, but a question about a past flight. Hope you don't mind. I just wanted to understand if my reading of the map was right. As you'll see on the map (image attached), there's practically nothing on the way of the flight. Just a small portion of red area, but the bumps occurred almost exactly on the half way of the flight. The captain himself classified the bumps as medium to severe turbulence, caused by a cold front.

It was not so bad because is good to once in a while to face your fears, but I was wondering, when you forecast the flights in south america, is this map the only one that you have access? Is there anything I missed, reading the map? I didn't ask for the forecast here in the forum because it looked so smooth, but I must say, if the knew I would face those bumps, I'll probably change my flight! haha

Screen Shot 2016-08-20 at 13.25.17.jpg

Thanks!
 

tb_neg

Administrator
Staff member
Hi. I wish that screen shot was a little larger.

Couple of things. There is timing. Those maps are drawn hours in advance, so they are just predictions of where they think the stuff will be. It can go faster or slower, so when I see a map like that I take a look at the next one as well (or at least the previous one), to get an idea of direction and speed, but that's the most likely explanation. The jet wasn't indicated as turbulent but that doesn't mean it wasn't.

I usually don't look for cold fronts, but I think usually they are given away by the presence of weather (red bubble areas), and sometimes the jet. You could look for cold fronts:
http://www.intellicast.com/Global/Surface.aspx?region=samer
http://www.intellicast.com/Global/Satellite/Infrared.aspx?region=hisasat

To be fair, I probably would have forecasted your flight as you did, I usually only look at this map for most forecasts world wide, the only time I look at additional maps is US flights because we have a lot more data here. It's good to look for the fronts, something I will keep in mind, although I'd like to see a radar image for when your flight was.

So, in summary, the maps are not as precise as we'd like and forecasts are just a guideline, it's hard to be as precise as we are.
 

Popinigis

Lifetime Elite
Hey tb_neg, thanks for the feedback. Sorry about the screen shot size! Well, it's a good thing we talked about it so we can try to improve forecast with the cold fronts information. Thanks for the support.


Hi. I wish that screen shot was a little larger.

Couple of things. There is timing. Those maps are drawn hours in advance, so they are just predictions of where they think the stuff will be. It can go faster or slower, so when I see a map like that I take a look at the next one as well (or at least the previous one), to get an idea of direction and speed, but that's the most likely explanation. The jet wasn't indicated as turbulent but that doesn't mean it wasn't.

I usually don't look for cold fronts, but I think usually they are given away by the presence of weather (red bubble areas), and sometimes the jet. You could look for cold fronts:
http://www.intellicast.com/Global/Surface.aspx?region=samer
http://www.intellicast.com/Global/Satellite/Infrared.aspx?region=hisasat

To be fair, I probably would have forecasted your flight as you did, I usually only look at this map for most forecasts world wide, the only time I look at additional maps is US flights because we have a lot more data here. It's good to look for the fronts, something I will keep in mind, although I'd like to see a radar image for when your flight was.

So, in summary, the maps are not as precise as we'd like and forecasts are just a guideline, it's hard to be as precise as we are.
 
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